The PostHoc Company specializes in justifying decisions that have already been made. One day they fielded a request to perform a project risk analysis and compute the risk factor for buying an investment property on St

Charles Street in the Big Easy. There was no time (and no need to be perfectly honest) to gather any data regarding the situation; all they had to do was provide an equation and a number that showed the project wasn't too risky for the investor that had already made a decision to proceed. The investor wanted the overall project risk factor to come in at an even 0.5 and also wanted all of the scores for the seven factors that make up this score to have identical values. What is the probability of failure for complexity if these two criteria are met?

The risk factor for complexity (as well as the other six components) should be 0.2928932.

Cf = (Cc + Cs + Cr + Cp)/4
Pf = (Pm + Pc + Pd)/3
Cc = Cs = Cr = Cp = Pm = Pc = Pd
let x = Cc = Cs = Cr = Cp = Pm = Pc = Pd
RF = Pf + Cf - PfCf
RF = x + x - x2 = 0.5
x2 - 2x + .5 = 0
x =
x = (1.707, 0.2928)

Since the probabilities must range between 0 and 1, the only possible answer is 0.2928.