When Supreme Court Justice Blackmun heard that the prediction of violence is wrong two out of three times, he concluded that predicting violence using a coin flip would be more accurate. Why was he wrong?
a. The specificity of a coin flip is above 50 percent.
b. The sensitivity of a coin flip is above 50 percent.
c. The base rate of violence is much lower than 50 percent.
d. The coin flip is random, not based on clinical judgment.
Answer: c.
Psychology
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