Discuss how the field of parapsychology has been affected by fraud, poorly designed experiments, inconsistency in results, and chance occurrences, or coincidence; and explain what it would take to scientifically demonstrate the existence of ESP?

What will be an ideal response?

Answer will include that fraud continues to plague parapsychology to a great extent. The need for skepticism is especially great anytime there is money to be made from purported psychic abilities. Stage demonstrations of ESP are based on deception and tricks, as are other "for profit" enterprises, such as "psychic hot lines," whose operators are taught to do cold readings, in which they make general statements and then refine their remarks based on the caller's response to general statements. In fact, the owners of the notorious "Miss Cleo" TV-psychic operation were convicted of felony fraud in 2002 . Early experiments conducted by Rhine and others were poorly designed and lacked adequate controls. For example, some of Rhine's most dramatic early experiments used badly printed Zener cards that allowed the symbols to show faintly on the back. It was also very easy to cheat by marking cards with a fingernail or by noting marks on the cards caused by normal use. There is also evidence that early experimenters sometimes unconsciously gave people cues about cards with their eyes, facial gestures, or lip movements. None of the early studies in parapsychology were done in a way that eliminated the possibility of deliberate fraud or the accidental "leakage" of helpful information. Modern parapsychologists are now well aware of the need for double-blind experiments, security and accuracy in record keeping, meticulous control, and repeatability of experiments. Inconsistency in psi research is a related problem. For every published study with positive results, there are others that fail and are never reported. Even experimental "successes" are weak. Many of the most spectacular findings in parapsychology simply cannot be replicated (reproduced or repeated). Furthermore, improved research methods has usually resulted in fewer positive results. Even when a person does seem to show evidence of psi ability, it is rare, if almost unheard of, for him or her to maintain that ability over any sustained period of time. For instance, a person who only temporarily scores above chance has just received credit for a run of luck, which is a statistically unusual outcome that could occur by chance alone. However, when this run of luck ends, some ESP researchers believe this "decline effect" shows that parapsychological skills are very fragile. This subsequent run of poor guesses is interpreted to mean the person's precognition has temporarily faded out. Thus, creative interpretation is also a common problem when it comes to psi, with ESP researchers reinterpreted failures as "successes" and claiming that they represented intentional "psi missing.". The most important reason has to do with chance. Coincidences occur quite often. On any given night, many people might act on a "premonition.". If, by coincidence, one person's hunch turns out to be correct, it may be reinterpreted as precognition or clairvoyance. No one reports the vast majority of false premonitions, which will simply be forgotten. To scientifically demonstrate the existence of ESP would require a set of instructions that would allow any competent, unbiased observer to produce a psi event under standardized conditions that rule out any possibility of fraud or chance.