In a research study, participants are told that Louis has lived in Boston his whole life. They are then asked which is more likely: A) Louis is a baseball fan, or B) Louis is a baseball fan who roots for the Boston Red Sox. Which of the following is true?
A) Participants who answer ‘A' are correct.
B) Participants who answer ‘A' have committed the conjunction fallacy.
C) Participants who answer ‘B' are demonstrating belief perseverance.
D) Participants who answer ‘B' have committed the conjunction fallacy.
Answer: D
Rationale: The conjunction fallacy is the mistaken belief that finding a specific member in two overlapping categories (i.e., a member of the conjunction of two categories) is more likely than finding any member of one of the larger, general categories. It is a mathematical impossibility that Louis is more likely to be a baseball fan who roots for the Red Sox, Red Sox baseball fans are a subset of baseball fans.
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