The programming division at ABC decides to resurrect the classic Battle of the Network Stars and is understandable concerned about the risk to their own stars, the shows they star on, and their reputation as a purveyor of fine family-oriented

entertainment. After a thoughtful assessment of the probabilities and consequences of failure, the team discover that the three probabilities of failure are all equal and the four consequences of failure are all equal. Further, the overall consequence of failure is half the overall probability of failure. The overall risk factor is 0.6; what are the values for the three probabilities and the four consequences?

The overall project risk factor is 0.5725, perhaps too risky for Garman and his henchman.

Pf =
Pe = Pm = Ph

Cf =
Cc = Cs = Cf = Cp

2Cf = Pf

Rf = Pf + Cf - Pf Cf

0.6 = Pf + - Pf
0.6 = Pf + -

Pf =

Pf = ±
Pf = (0.475, 2.52)

Since probabilities cannot exceed 1, the Pf = 0.475 and the Pe, Pm and Ph must also equal that value. The Cc, Cs, Cr and Cp must be half that amount, 0.237.